28 July 2013
A Cambodian Election Prediction
Hun Sen will 'allow' the CNRP a gain of between 7-10 seats.
This will reduce the number of seats his party holds from 90 out of 123 to a still incredibly healthy 80-83.
By 'allow' I mean that there is only so much ballot stuffing the CPP can indulge in without suffering outright ridicule and outrage from the international community and many Cambodians.
Thus, it will 'give up' these seats, probably half the number it actually lost, in an attempt to claim that the elections were free and fair.
And then it will plod along as before...