Coup Conversations

The talk of another coup in Thailand has begun.

“The coup-makers must settle social division, create the right path for the country and return power to the people as soon as possible”, said former army chief General Chaisit Shinawatra.

Some within Puea Thai, the major opposition party, have also said that conditions are favourable for another military putsch. And the secretary-general of the New Politics Party, a party formed by members of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) agrees. PAD, who know something about coups, were responsible for closing down Bangkok’s airport late in 2008 and they are claiming that there are forces, ‘including men in uniform,’ preparing to topple the government.

Talks of a coup have been spurred by a number of factors. Firstly, the ‘red shirts,’ who support ex-prime minister Thaksin are rallying in Bangkok on the 19th of this month to mark the third anniversary of the last coup. And whenever they gather trouble is likely to occur. Secondly, there are rumours of a rift between Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajive and his defence minister, General Prawit Wongsuwon; Abhisit recently dumped Prawit’s younger brother from his position as national chief police into a ‘inactive’ position. And thirdly, the prime minister leaves for the US next week; its always a good time for a big power play when the lead is out of the way.

 Abhisit decribes talk of a coup as ‘weird’and most other influential Thai’s agree. A more probable scenario is that an increasingly desparate Thaksin is working hard in exile to create whatever trouble he can, but that this will fall way short of inducing a putsch. Thaksin's problem is that he needs to act quickly; the ‘red shirt’ group is becoming fractured and as that happens his power-base is further eroded.

The rally on the 19th will tell us much about Thaksin's level of influence but tanks are unlikely to roll in downtown Bangkok. At least not this month.